A State University of New York professor who picked the previous five presidential elections correctly can now say he's done this six times. He predicted Trump to win the election back in February.  

According to New York Upstate, Professor Helmut Norpoth said even before the primary race was over, Donald Trump would become the next president of the United States with 97 percent certainty. So does he pick a name out of a hat, or is their any political science that goes behind his choices?

Norpoth is a professor at SUNY Stony Brook on Long Island. He says his model is more accurate than opinion polling used by most major pollsters. Norpoth's model uses on statistics from candidate performance in party primaries and patterns in the electoral cycle to forecast results. He says it relies on information about voter action, rather than what voters say they are going to do.

"It is ingrained in all of us that voting is civic duty," Norpoth says. "So nearly all of us say, oh yes, I'll vote, and then many will not follow through."

His prediction model is known as the Primary Model. Even when tested on former elections,  the model predicts every campaign back to 1912 correctly, with the sole exception of the 1960 election.


 

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