Who took home Album of the Year honors at the very first Grammy Awards, way back in 1959? Any guesses? It was, of course, Henry Mancini’s The Music From Peter Gunn — it beat out Ella Fitzgerald and two separate Frank Sinatra records.

What, you don’t remember that? Well, you will remember the 60th Grammy Awards, which take place Sunday night in Brooklyn and will see a clash of hip-hop stars in several of the top categories. Will Kendrick Lamar finally earn Album of the Year after a snub two years ago? Or will JAY-Z or Childish Gambino swoop in? And what about Lorde and Bruno Mars?

Let’s break down all the big categories this year, with who should win and who is most likely to win at the 2018 Grammys.

“Redbone” — Childish Gambino
“Despacito” — Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee Featuring Justin Bieber
“The Story Of O.J.” — JAY-Z
“HUMBLE.” — Kendrick Lamar
“24K Magic” — Bruno Mars

Should win: “HUMBLE.,” Kendrick Lamar. ROTY has recently been the Big Four’s most chart-abiding category — the last six winners have been Top-2 Billboard Hot 100 smashes (Adele’s No. 1 hit “Hello” took the award home last year). By that criteria, it’s “HUMBLE.” versus “Despacito” — the universally lauded emcee against the inescapable summer smash. “HUMBLE.” is easily the more impactful and interesting song.

Will win: “Despacito,” Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee Featuring Justin Bieber. Right around this monster’s third month at No. 1 last summer, I started my “this will be ROTY” chant, especially if Ed Sheeran’s “Shape of You” didn’t make the cut (which it didn’t). The Recording Academy loves ubiquity in this category and will award the year’s most dominant chart-topper.

“Awaken, My Love!” — Childish Gambino
4:44 — JAY-Z
DAMN. — Kendrick Lamar
Melodrama — Lorde
24K Magic — Bruno Mars

Should win: DAMN., Kendrick Lamar. As much as I loved the Lorde album — “Melodrama” was my undisputed album of 2017 — it wasn’t the statement LP she hoped it’d be, and after Kendrick was snubbed for AOTY at the 2016 ceremony (To Pimp A Butterfly was easily the best album of 2015), I can’t help but think how much he freaking deserves this one, even if DAMN. is his least impressive LP thus far. Still, by general hip-hop standards it was stellar, and better than the JAY-Z comeback and Childish Gambino’s art project. Bruno Mars has zero chance here.

Will win: DAMN., Kendrick Lamar. This is the year, man. For the first time since 2004, a true hip-hop album is going win AOTY, even if it’s blood money after Taylor Swift upset Kendrick and Adele outdid Beyonce in back-to-back years. Kendrick is finally going to nab the big one, he’s going to make a momentous speech and we will all believe in humanity for a few minutes.

“Despacito” — Ramón Ayala, Justin Bieber, Jason “Poo Bear” Boyd, Erika Ender, Luis Fonsi & Marty James Garton, songwriters (Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee Featuring Justin Bieber)

“4:44” — Shawn Carter & Dion Wilson, songwriters (Jay-Z)

“Issues” — Benny Blanco, Mikkel Storleer Eriksen, Tor Erik Hermansen, Julia Michaels & Justin Drew Tranter, songwriters (Julia Michaels)

“1-800-273-8255” — Alessia Caracciolo, Sir Robert Bryson Hall II, Arjun Ivatury & Khalid Robinson, songwriters (Logic Featuring Alessia Cara & Khalid

“That’s What I Like” — Christopher Brody Brown, James Fauntleroy, Philip Lawrence, Bruno Mars, Ray Charles McCullough II, Jeremy Reeves, Ray Romulus & Jonathan Yip, songwriters (Bruno Mars)

Should win: “4:44,” JAY-Z. Let’s do process of elimination for this one: while the message is right, I’ve always found “1-800-273-8255” to be a rather poorly written song. Also Khalid is grossly overrated. “Despacito” will get its due in ROTY. Julia Michaels hasn’t broken through quite enough to win with “Issues.” And Bruno Mars sings about a life only he and like seven other people get to lead. That leaves Hov’s reasonably earnest apology to Beyonce over a sample of Hannah Williams & The Affirmations’ “Late Nights & Heartbreak.” JAY-Z is still a fine storyteller— give him the win here.

Will win: “That’s What I Like,” Bruno Mars. The Grammys love Bruno Mars; they just do. He’s not leaving the major categories empty-handed. There’s always a moan-and-groan somewhere in the Big Four and it will come right here.

Alessia Cara
Lil Uzi Vert
Julia Michaels

Should win: SZA. Maybe it’s the Jersey boy in me, but man-oh-man do I believe in the Garden State R&B ingenue SZA, and her 2017 debut CTRL was a terrific bridge between R&B, hip-hop and the indie-alternative scene. I’d say most critics are in agreement that the artist born Solana Rowe is the most deserving nominee here.

Will win: Alessia Cara. SZA does have a real chance here, but you cannot deny 21-year-old Alessia Cara’s impact over the last two years: four Top 10 songs with huge replay-ability — it’s tough to cycle through your radio presets and not come across her. Chance The Rapper notwithstanding, the Recording Academy likes “household name” visibility and Alessia certainly has that.

“Love So Soft” — Kelly Clarkson
“Praying” — Kesha
“Million Reasons” — Lady Gaga
“What About Us” — P!nk
“Shape Of You” — Ed Sheeran

Should win: “Praying,” Kesha. If you’ve been paying attention to Kesha’s legal saga against superstar producer Dr. Luke, then you know how big of a comeback — and sonic evolution — 2017 was Ms. “Tik Tok.” “Praying” is an incredibly impassioned track jabbing Dr. Luke at every turn while still professing Kesha’s own growth. She needed this, we needed this.

Will win: “Shape Of You,” Ed Sheeran. Somehow, nothing off Sheeran’s hugely successful Divide cracked the Big Four categories, and he will be rewarded with this pseudo-consolation. You can set your watch to this one.

“Something Just Like This” — The Chainsmokers & Coldplay
“Despacito” — Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee Featuring Justin Bieber
“Thunder” — Imagine Dragons
“Feel It Still” — Portugal. The Man
“Stay” — Zedd & Alessia Cara

Should win: “Feel It Still,” Portugal. The Man. I’m a sucker for bands who toil in the indie depths for years then finally score a pop hit and can finally make a livable wage. The retro-tinged jam “Feel It Still” is still all over radio and I’m not sure I’m sick of it yet. The other four nominees I’m way, way over.

Most likely to win: “Despacito,” Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee Featuring Justin Bieber. Nothing would shock me in the category; all nominees are/were longtime Top 10 hits but “Despacito” was the most “of the moment” smash and will probably be rewarded for it, especially if it’s kept from the Big Four.

Kaleidoscope EP — Coldplay
Lust For Life — Lana Del Rey
Evolve — Imagine Dragons
Rainbow — Kesha
Joanne — Lady Gaga
÷ (Divide) — Ed Sheeran

Should win: Rainbow, Kesha. Like I said above, 2017 was a huge year for Kesha, the person, let alone Kesha, the artist. She proved her worth 10-fold with Rainbow, an album I shouted from the rooftops last summer as the best pure pop release of the year. It was smart, sharply written and loads of fun.

Will win: ÷ (Divide), Ed Sheeran. Since he’s kept out of the Big Four, I’m not betting against Ed Sheeran in any of the second-tier pop categories. Not that this win would exactly be unearned — Divide was loaded with memorable hooks and boosted Sheeran’s status to stadium-level performer.

Emperor Of Sand — Mastodon
Hardwired…To Self-Destruct — Metallica
The Stories We Tell Ourselves — Nothing More
Villains — Queens Of The Stone Age
A Deeper Understanding — The War On Drugs

Should win: A Deeper Understanding, The War On Drugs. Loved, love and will continue to love this brilliant rock effort from Philadelphia’s The War On Drugs. A Deeper Understanding — think Ryan Adams with a cleaner, ‘80s-inspired polish — has been my cooking, shaving, showering music for the last three months. Of these nominees, this is without question the best rock album.

Will win: Hardwired…To Self-Destruct, Metallica. The Recording Academy seems to pay less and less attention to the line between rock n’ roll and heavy metal — hence Metallica and the Georgia metal group Mastodon in this category — and as the Academy loves name recognition in the rock categories, Metallica will get the nod. Plus, the Grammys sort of owe them after last year’s on-stage debacle with Lady Gaga.

Everything Now — Arcade Fire
Humanz — Gorillaz
American Dream — LCD Soundsystem
Pure Comedy — Father John Misty
Sleep Well Beast — The National

Should win: American Dream, LCD Soundsystem. Okay, one-by-one: despite the Recording Academy’s infatuation with Arcade Fire, Everything Now was too polarizing to win. Gorillaz’s Humanz wasn’t particularly world-beating. Father John Misty is the worst. And while Sleep Well Beast was very, very good and The National don’t seem to know how to write bad music anymore, everyone has been in love with electro-rock auteur James Murphy and LCD Soundsystem’s triumphant return to prominence, and American Dream was pretty infallible.

Will win: American Dream, LCD Soundsystem. For the reasons above, I think the Grammys will actually get this one right.

Free 6LACK — 6LACK
“Awaken, My Love!” — Childish Gambino
American Teen — Khalid
Ctrl — SZA
Starboy — The Weeknd

Should win: Ctrl, SZA. This year’s Urban field is exceedingly tough. But it won’t be 6LACK, it won’t be Khalid and it better not be The Weeknd. So it’s newcomer Jersey girl SZA and her brilliantly vulnerable and well-paced debut Ctrl versus Childish Gambino’s highly acclaimed (and nominated) album. For me, Ctrl was infinitely more listenable.

Will win: “Awaken, My Love!,” Childish Gambino. Awaken will be kept out of the Big Four winner’s circle, but will be very difficult to beat further down the list. SZA will likely win elsewhere, but not here.

Freudian — Daniel Caesar
Let Love Rule — Ledisi
24K Magic — Bruno Mars
Gumbo — PJ Morton
Feel The Real – Musiq Soulchild

Should win: Freudian, Daniel Caesar. Best R&B Album is tough to call, since none of these albums other than 24K Magic — which most certainly does not deserve to win this category — made much of a mainstream splash. In other words, it’s hard to get a read on how much time the Recording Academy spent with any of these. I enjoyed Canadian crooner Daniel Caesar’s debut the most of these. Here’s hoping it gets its due.

Will win: Freudian, Daniel Caesar. Again, this one’s a bit of a crapshoot, but Caesar’s Freudian has, by far, the most online streams of this group (sans Mars) and that could give him the edge.

4:44 — JAY-Z
DAMN. — Kendrick Lamar
Culture — Migos
Laila’s Wisdom — Rapsody
Flower Boy — Tyler, The Creator

Should win: DAMN., Kendrick Lamar. This one is Kendrick vs. Jay. The others have as much a chance as you do of winning this category. And of those two records, DAMN. was better; a starker example of what hip-hop is and should strive to be in 2018 and what will go down as a colossal LP from an emcee in his prime. JAY-Z just can’t compete with that — not now, at least.

Will win: 4:44, JAY-Z. Like I said before, this is Kendrick’s year — he is finally going to take Album of the Year and The Recording Academy will reward JAY-Z earlier in the night with this: Best Rap Album. It won’t be fair, but whatever: Kung Fu Kenny’s got bigger fish to fry! Also, he cannot go to the Grammys without getting screwed in some way.

Cosmic Hallelujah — Kenny Chesney
Heart Break — Lady Antebellum
The Breaker — Little Big Town
Life Changes — Thomas Rhett
From A Room: Volume 1 — Chris Stapleton

Should win: From A Room: Volume 1, Chris Stapleton. I didn’t hear too much chatter about “Tennessee Whiskey” wailer Chris Stapleton’s 2017 follow-up, but it was really something: the country-ballad “Either Way” rips your heart out and throws it in the Mississippi River. The album is very strong all the way through — I could listen to Stapleton sing the Cookout menu.

Will win : The Breaker, Little Big Town. The Recording Academy loves Little Big Town and the Taylor Swift-penned “Better Man” was something of a crossover hit and will give the quartet an edge over fellow Grammys country darling Lady Antebellum.

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