Possible Second Cold Front Could Bring New York’s First Frost By Labor Day
The leaves are already changing colors across Central New York, meaning the first frost is right around the corner.
The Old Farmer's Almanac's prediction of the first frost of 2024 may already be outdated not even a week after issuing it. Why? Another cold front could be heading our way.
The prognosticator had originally said frost would first arrive between late September and early October.
Due to a cold front that's already barreled across Central New York, people might see a twinkling layer of ice on plants and trees way earlier than anticipated.
This current front had daytime temperatures drop at least 15 degrees below normal, while nighttime temperatures were even chillier; bottoming out around the mid-40s.
But in some areas, the temperatures have fallen even more.
The summit of Whiteface on the Adirondack Mountains reported 37-degree temperatures on Tuesday. Pair that with winds at 26 mph, the "feels like" temperature there was a balmy 25 degrees.
Read More: Whiteface Feels Like Winter Is Already Here in New York
This current front is set to exit the region by August 22, but it could be setting up the groundwork for what's coming down the road. A few forecasters are tracking a possible second cold front, which could march into the area around Labor Day weekend.
Northeast regional forecaster eweather is predicting another cold shot by late next week and warns the temperatures may be even chillier than what we're currently experiencing.
Taking a very early look ahead to Labor Day Weekend (hard to believe it’s already coming!)…the Euro has a front approaching from the west as we head into the weekend. Could mean humid conditions to start the weekend with showers and storms at some point over the weekend with a cold front that flushes out the sticky air.
Direct Weather, a YouTuber who issues national weather predictions, is also warning of a secondary cold front in the coming week.
He says the first snow is slated to fall in mountainous parts of Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming on August 25, of which he calls a "historic moment" due to how early it is. "This is ahead of schedule for these areas," he said.
He also says the European Model is calling for "a very strong cold front" with "brutal arctic air" to blow through New York starting next Friday, August 30. Comparing it our current front, they say the oncoming second blast will be "even more violent."
Current projections say the coldest temperatures around Labor Day will be in in Northeastern New York, which could be as low as 35 degrees. Central New York may be slightly warmer, but by only 2 degrees, based on current models.
Either way, the chilly temperatures and moist air will create favorable conditions for frost.
CFS Models, which issue projections up to 45 days out, apparently show "colder air prevailing" from now through October 4. While this doesn't account for every day, Direct Weather says the cold air will "account for a majority" of this timeframe.
The National Weather Service in Binghamton says they will not be able to confirm these findings until they are in the 7-day range.
In regards to seeing a cold front in August, the NWS said seeing cold fronts in August is "unusual," but history shows they are "not unprecedented."
Looking at Rome - Griffis, in 2008 there were a few mornings in the 40s around this same time. In 2009 there was a 46 on August 27. If you look through the years from 2008 to now there are several years where the low temperatures have dropped into the middle 40s to lower 50s. Average low temperatures for this time of the year are in the middle to upper 50s.
WIBX will continue tracking this possible second cold front and first frost of the season.
In the meantime, it's best to survey what you may need to bring indoors during this potential cold spell, like potted plants or outdoor decorations, so you are prepared in case we do get a super early visit from Old Man Winter.
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