New York’s Move to Delay NY-21 Special Election is Dead

The Democratic plan to push the special election calendar to replace Congresswoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY-21) to June in what critics believe was an effort to delay President Trump from moving his agenda forward, is now dead on arrival in Albany. Following a vehement protest by Republicans, the Democratic controlled legislature has decided not to move forward with a bill that would have extended the time required for Governor Kathy Hochul to set a special election to replace Congresswoman Stefanik, who has been nominated as President Trump's Ambassador to the United Nations. In effect, with an altered calendar this would mean President Trump would have to wait until a special election in June to see an expected Republican join his House majority, or he would have to delay Stefanik's appointment as Ambassador until after the election.

Meanwhile, Republicans are celebrating after what they say was fierce opposition to the legislation, which would have left some "800,000 residents in the 21st Congressional District in Northern New York disenfranchised". Insiders say it's more likely that pressure from President Trump forced Governor Hochul to urge legislators to kill the bill, as she's in the midst of a heated debate with Trump's White House over her controversial newly enacted $9 congestion fee in Manhattan. President Trump has threatened to kill that law, which the Governor says is actually working well to relieve traffic congestion in mid-town New York. Stay tuned to see if the President steps away from his opposition to Hochul's congestion tax.

What's Next

Over the last few weeks, Stefanik's confirmation has stalled because of the expected political chess match which then in turn caused pause from the Trump Administration which enjoys only a very razor thin majority in the House of Representatives. Stefanik's nomination has already made it through the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and her confirmation is expected to pass easily, which would then trigger the mandated process to set the special election. Monday's resolution to kill the "delay bill" should now clear the way for Stefanik to be confirmed.

Here are the procedures that need to be followed by New York Governor Kathy Hochul in order to fill the seat, after Stefanik resigns from Congress:

Governor Hochul will be required to call a special election within ten days of the vacancy, with the election held within 70 to 80 days of the announcement. Candidates from both parties would then be nominated by local committees instead of a primary election. Additionally, New York's expanded vote-by-mail and early voting rules will apply, likely boosting accessibility in this special election.

How Candidates are Selected

Republicans and Democrats will select their candidates using each of the 13 county chairs throughout the district, using a weighted voting system. These weights depend on the population and registered voter count in each county, with larger or more populous counties holding more influence.

For the Republican Party, the weighted voting process gives priority to counties like Saratoga, which has a significant population base in NY-21, followed by other populous counties such as Oneida, Herkimer Jefferson and St. Lawrence. Smaller counties like Hamilton and Essex, which have fewer voters, contribute less to the overall weighted vote but still play a role.

For the Democratic Party, the counties also contribute weighted votes, though the weighting differs slightly based on Democratic registration numbers and past voting trends. Counties such as Oneida, Warren, Clinton, and Essex are significant for Democratic influence in the district, whereas smaller counties with fewer registered Democrats have a smaller impact.

Both parties’ county committees use this weighted voting structure in a process facilitated by the New York State Board of Elections, with each county’s influence proportionate to their voter registration or recent election results. Conservative and Working Families will select their candidate based on party rules.

The Upstate Delegation Celebrates

Senator Joe Griffo, Assemblyman Brian Miller, Assemblyman Ken Blankenbush, Assemblywoman Marianne Buttenschon, Assemblyman Robert Smullen and Oneida County Executive Anthony Picente, and Rome Mayor Jeff Lanigan, each issued a joint statement on Monday afternoon.