Why Has Central New York Become a Tornado Hotspot All of a Sudden?

New York seems to be locked in a vicious cycle of severe weather... What's causing it?

On Monday, August 5, New York broke the state record for the most tornadoes in a year. An unprecedented 26 tornadoes ravaged the Empire State so far in 2024, and more could follow as the we continue to deal with extreme afternoon thunderstorms, rainfall, and flooding.

This crazy weather pattern has residents rightfully demanding answers why this year is so different than others.

Conspiracy theorists claim the reason is because of solar panels and wind turbines. That theory, says Science and Operations Officer at the Binghamton NWS Brian Tentinger, is emphatically false.

Speaking with Townsquare Media, Tentinger said, "Solar panels and wind turbines do not have a direct impact on weather or climate."

That conspiracy theory has been disproven numerous times, including AFP Fact Check. IOPScience added it's over 99% certain all human-caused climate change is directly caused by burning fossil fuels.

So, what is causing Central New York to become a hotspot of tornado activity all of a sudden?

Tentinger said what the state is experiencing now is actually not a new phenomenon and is similar to what happened 32 years ago - when the state initially set the record for most tornadoes in a year.

Looking at some of the large scale patterns from 1992 (May -Jul, and July alone), and comparing them to the patterns from this year, they do look similar with a general large scale trough over the Great Lakes and much of the Northeast US. This would tend to lead to a more active pattern.

There were also similar moisture patterns when looking at a field called precipitable water (measures the amount of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere).

Tentinger did note July 1992 was much cooler than July 2024.

Tentinger continued that the climate continues to produce the perfect conditions for tornadoes and strong thunderstorms to form. One of the biggest ingredients is unstable air and "having a lot of spin in the atmosphere" during times of hot temperatures and high dew points.

The "spin" in question, he said, is what's commonly referred to as "wind shear."

If you have a lot of turning of the winds very close to the ground this is very favorable. You also need low cloud bases in order for the storm to be close enough to the ground to connect the rotating storm to the surface.

Tornadoes continue to be extremely difficult to study because of how dangerous they are, but Tentinger said the above factors help forecasters detect potential tornado formation.

As for when this will all end, Tentinger said the active weather season typically lasts until cooler and drier air begins moving into the region between September and October.

New Yorkers may also be concerned that this summer is setting the stage for years to come, to which Tentinger advised against. "We forecast weather conditions 7 days out and really try to focus on getting that data/information as accurate as possible," he said.

While some forecasters are already prognosticating 2025, Tentinger said accuracy is unlikely because "there are so many variables that go into creating active or inactive weather patterns."

Basically, forecasters need to see what happens during the colder months to even begin theorizing what next summer will look like.

Right now, all eyes are on the remnants of what was Hurricane Debby and how she will impact Central New York in the coming days. Currently, warnings have been issued for massive flooding and heavy rainfall.

Read More: Here's How Tropical Storm Debby Will Impact Central New York

Keep listening to WIBX for up to date forecasts and weather warnings as we head into yet another bumpy weather ride.

Good news is, the constant threat of tornadoes and thunderstorms has an expiration date - as soon as Old Man Winter begins waking up... and that should be very soon.

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