New York Could Be Wet, Cold, and Snowy for the Holidays

As La Niña strengthens across the Pacific Ocean, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has released its official outlook for November 2025 through January 2026, covering Thanksgiving, Christmas, and the heart of winter.

While parts of the U.S. South can expect drier and warmer conditions, New York’s winter forecast tells a different story.

What La Niña Means for New York

La Niña typically shifts the jet stream northward, which can make winters across the Great Lakes and Northeast colder and wetter than usual. NOAA’s latest maps show most of Upstate and Central New York sitting in a “leaning-wet” zone, meaning a 33% to 50% chance of above-average precipitation, including rain, snow, or both, as we move through the holidays and into January.

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That could spell a snowier season for areas like Utica, Syracuse, Rome, and the Mohawk Valley, while regions farther south toward the Hudson Valley and New York City may see a mix of milder temperatures and frequent rain systems.

Temperature Outlook: A Toss-Up

Unlike the South, where above-average warmth is all but guaranteed, New York falls into NOAA’s “equal chances” category for temperature. In other words, it could go either way: typical winter chill, a few warm spells, or a few deep freezes.

However, with La Niña often fueling more frequent cold fronts out of Canada, Central and Northern New York could trend cooler overall, especially around the Adirondacks and Tug Hill Plateau. Those lake-effect snow belts might see several early and heavy bursts once cold air starts sweeping across Lake Ontario.

Holiday Travel Outlook

If you’re planning Thanksgiving or Christmas travel, NOAA’s outlook suggests higher odds of unsettled weather across New York State. Roads may be slick from rain or early snow, especially overnight. Meanwhile, downstate drivers could face soggy, foggy holiday weekends instead of flurries.

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Meteorologists also note that a wetter pattern doesn’t necessarily mean constant storms... just that systems will likely be more frequent or more intense than average during this three-month window.

What to Watch For

• November – December: Expect fluctuating temperatures and a mix of rain and snow as La Niña strengthens.

• Late December – January: Colder air is likely to settle in, increasing the potential for heavier snow events across Central and Northern New York.

• Southern New York: More rain than snow, but still a chance of a few wintry surprises.

Will New York Have A White Christmas??

If you’re dreaming of a white Christmas in Central New York, this could be your year. NOAA’s latest long-range outlook points to a wetter-than-normal holiday season, potentially delivering above-average snowfall for much of the state.

So keep those snow shovels handy, grab the hot cocoa, and get ready: winter in New York looks to be a classic La Niña mix of snow, slush, and surprises.

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